[whatsstrength]

So I'm thinking of investing stock in Take Two because of how poorly the company is doing at the moment, it's inevitable that share prices will skyrocket when GTA V comes out, but I'm still confused about one thing: the $1.8 Billion in earnings they expect by March 31, 2013.

The following are games they published that have yet to release BY MARCH 31 2013.

NBA 2K13
XCOM Enemy Unknown
Max Payne 3: Painful Memories Map Pack (DLC)
Max Payne 3: Trickle Down Economics Map Pack (DLC)
Bioshock Infinite

Now BEAR IN MIND, Borderlands 2 JUST came out and is sure to be a very successful game. Bioshock Infinite is also sure to be a hit.

The BIG question is: Will those titles be profitable enough to meet Take Two's projected earnings of $1.8 Billion?

GTA V is still listed as TBA, but it's listed before XCOM, which comes out in Fiscal Year 2014. Bioshock comes out in February so, that means there's still a chance for GTA to come out by the end of March.

Will GTA V be the title that gets them those numbers? Should I go ahead and invest now, or wait a few more weeks?

[Frantz Fuchs]

How much have they made so far?

[Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian]

Just because GTA V is listed after Bioshock Infinite, it doesn't mean it comes out after Bioshock Infinite. It's because the game is listed with release date TBA! If we calculate everything then it's not possible to make such a high income without GTA V. You should invest NOW because now one game after the other will be released and the stock will rise up in the next months. GTA V will let it rise up even more. If you invest now then you're making a good deal. That's for sure!

[MLGTA]

I say wait a little bit longer.

But at this point im really confused on how they will make all that money by march cause i don't think borderlands nor bioshock are going to bring in massive amounts of money. Hell i didn't even know borderlands 2 came out until yesterday.

At this point i think that if we don't hear anything from R* by early Oct then i think the game may have gotten delayed.

[Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian]

QUOTE (MLGTA @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:30)

I say wait a little bit longer.

Why should he wait longer? Borderlands 2 got released 4 days ago and more games are coming. I think the stock won't drop so fast again. In early August it would have been a better deal (20% more shares for the same money) but still now it's a good deal. We're now in late September. We're near the fall, the big games are coming, GTA V most likely in March so whatsstrength can earn a lot of money in the next months if he invest soon some money.

[Cyfa]

Well. 2K13 and Bioshock are going to be sure hits, and BL2 is already a hit, I would invest now, but I also don't think that those 3 games are going to be anywhere close to the 1.8 billion mark.

[herounderfireza]

QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:36)

QUOTE (MLGTA @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:30) I say wait a little bit longer. Why should he wait longer? Borderlands 2 got released 4 days ago and more games are coming. I think the stock won't drop so fast again. In early August it would have been a better deal (20% more shares for the same money) but still now it's a good deal. We're now in late September. We're near the fall, the big games are coming, GTA V most likely in March so whatsstrength can earn a lot of money in the next months if he invest soon some money.

It's still a risk. The potential is there for Rockstar to only release GTA V November 2013...
But... you've got to risk it to get the biscuit

[Frantz Fuchs]

OK, first quarter Net Revenue was $226.1 Million. (MP3).
Borderlands 1 sold 4.5 million so let's say BL2 will sell 6 million (2x total MP3 sales) so they will make $450 million from BL2.
Rougly the same numbers from Bioshock: Infinite and NBA so that's another $900 million.

In total, that's $1.35 Billion already and take two have lots of other games coming out too so V could very well miss the 2013 fiscal year.

Of course this is very roughly worked out but still.

[MLGTA]

QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:36)

QUOTE (MLGTA @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:30) I say wait a little bit longer. Why should he wait longer? Borderlands 2 got released 4 days ago and more games are coming. I think the stock won't drop so fast again. In early August it would have been a better deal (20% more shares for the same money) but still now it's a good deal. We're now in late September. We're near the fall, the big games are coming, GTA V most likely in March so whatsstrength can earn a lot of money in the next months if he invest soon some money.

Well i guess he should do it now then.But does anyone know when the next conference is.I really want to hear what they are going to say about making 1.8 billion by march.Only if we haven't gotten a gta v release date

[Cyfa]

QUOTE (Frantz Fuchs @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 16:47)

OK, first quarter Net Revenue was $226.1 Million. (MP3). Borderlands 1 sold 4.5 million so let's say BL2 will sell 6 million (2x total MP3 sales) so they will make $450 million from BL2. Rougly the same numbers from Bioshock: Infinite and NBA so that's another $900 million. In total, that's $1.35 Billion already and take two have lots of other games coming out too so V could very well miss the 2013 fiscal year. Of course this is very roughly worked out but still.

Do they get $60 from retailers?

[Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian]

QUOTE (herounderfireza @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:46)

It's still a risk. The potential is there for Rockstar to only release GTA V November 2013...

Okay, November 2013 seems very unlikely don't you think? I think the worst case would be a delay to May and if whatsstrength would wait until then, then he would still make some big money. Not as good as if GTA V would be released in March but still.

QUOTE (herounderfireza @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:46)

But... you've got to risk it to get the biscuit

Well said! But I think in the case of Rockstar and TakeTwo, the OP has nothing to fear.

@MLGTA: The next finance conference is on November 8th. Even if we've a release date (for March) before the next conference call then we should still look at it to see if there is a delay.

[KFranchise]

BL2 is a definite hit, 2K13 will probably hit 9 million copies, and Bioshock'll do fine. Plus MP3 sales, they'll near those predictions, if not hit them.

[Frantz Fuchs]

QUOTE (Cyfa @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:52)

QUOTE (Frantz Fuchs @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 16:47) OK, first quarter Net Revenue was $226.1 Million. (MP3). Borderlands 1 sold 4.5 million so let's say BL2 will sell 6 million (2x total MP3 sales) so they will make $450 million from BL2. Rougly the same numbers from Bioshock: Infinite and NBA so that's another $900 million. In total, that's $1.35 Billion already and take two have lots of other games coming out too so V could very well miss the 2013 fiscal year. Of course this is very roughly worked out but still. Do they get $60 from retailers?

Nope, they have to pay for the physical CD's, the case, getting it rated by ESRB, licensing it by MS and Sony. In the end, the devs only get about $30 per copy.

[wwinterj]

QUOTE (MLGTA @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 23:30)

I say wait a little bit longer.

This. There is no guarantee that the money expected has anything to do with GTA V although some assume it does as in there mind there is no other logical explanation. We should know more about this come November but personally I would not risk any of my own cash on an assumption. I expect the game to be out in May 2013. I'd wait until after the next call (November) as the stock would drop down quite a bit if this cash is GTA V related and the predictions have changed as they most likely will if this cash is GTA V related. We can only class this as a delay if the predictions change as this would mean for sure the cash expected is GTA V related. At the moment we can't be sure.

This post has been edited by wwinterj on Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:59

[MosquitoSmasher]

QUOTE (wwinterj @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:54)

QUOTE (MLGTA @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 23:30) I say wait a little bit longer. This. There is no guarantee that the money expected has anything to do with GTA V although some assume it does as in there mind there is no other logical explanation. We should know more about this come November but personally I would not risk any of my own cash on an assumption. I expect the game to be out in May 2013. I'd wait until after the next call (November) as the stock would drop down quite a bit if this cash is GTA V related and the predictions have changed as they most likely will if this cash is GTA V related. We can only class this as a delay if the predictions change.

You keep saying this dude, and i'm just curious...what other logical explanation could you think of then?

[Cyfa]

QUOTE (Frantz Fuchs @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 16:54)

QUOTE (Cyfa @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:52) QUOTE (Frantz Fuchs @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 16:47) OK, first quarter Net Revenue was $226.1 Million. (MP3). Borderlands 1 sold 4.5 million so let's say BL2 will sell 6 million (2x total MP3 sales) so they will make $450 million from BL2. Rougly the same numbers from Bioshock: Infinite and NBA so that's another $900 million. In total, that's $1.35 Billion already and take two have lots of other games coming out too so V could very well miss the 2013 fiscal year. Of course this is very roughly worked out but still. Do they get $60 from retailers? Nope, they have to pay for the physical CD's, the case, getting it rated by ESRB, licensing it by MS and Sony. In the end, the devs only get about $30 per copy.

So if they sell 6 million of BL2, isn't that only about 200 million?

[Frantz Fuchs]

Honestly, I don't know. It was a very rough estimate...

[MLGTA]

QUOTE (KFranchise @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 22:53)

BL2 is a definite hit, 2K13 will probably hit 9 million copies, and Bioshock'll do fine. Plus MP3 sales, they'll near those predictions, if not hit them.

Who knows maybe they will maybe they wont.

But maybe the original plan for gta was to really bring it out sometime in fiscal year 14.Cause from what zelnick keeps saying (Gta v is making substantial progress) it sounds to me like gta isn't in its last stages of development. If it really was supposed to be out in fiscal year 14 : then why bring out the trailer so damn early?

[FRA1Z3R]

You have to remember, Take-Two predicted that 55% of revenue would come from R*... Some people in here should have remembered that, especially you, brother brian.

[wwinterj]

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Friday, Sep 21 2012, 23:57)

You keep saying this dude, and i'm just curious...what other logical explanation could you think of then?

I keep saying it because it's true. There isn't another logical explanation I can think of myself but it could be from things we didn't even think about. Adding more to the point TakeTwo have been wrong before in there predictions as they was with Max Payne 3 so they could be overcompensating for things. Either way I can't be 100% sure it's GTA V related at this point.



This post has been edited by wwinterj on Friday, Sep 21 2012, 23:05