[bud23]

First,I work as freelance for different pages from europe (I don´t write in english and my english writing is not perfect as you will see).
For this reason(my work not my english ),I have contact and conversations with people that have a good knowledge of games business.
I´m going to write here some of the rumours that I heard in the past few weeks.This is just what I know,I don´t care if you believe me or not, I´m just giving you the info that I know .
So,If the mods consider that I must edit this thread, I will do.

Also, I invest in stocks that I know very well,and take two is one of my favourites.
I will tell you what I think TTWO will do in the next weeks.
This is what I heard,you should take it as rumours.
Ok,Said this;

This are a paraphrases of the conversations that I had with a journalist who was at e3.

-A Few weeks after e3(2-3 weeks ago),I spoke with a european journalist who told me this;There is at least three big magazines(GI,OXM and PSM) that have ready a preview of the game .(for this reason I felt dissapointed with the last gameinformer cover).

-Hours before sony conference at e3 ran a strong rumor in LA" something related with gta in the sony conference"
One day later,in one of the corridors, my "mole", had a informal conversation with the boss of Sony in an european country.They spoke about a lot of things,but the interesting part is this;
-What about gta V? Everybody thought that you had the game?
- (laughs)why? who tell you that?(laugh)
-So,was a fake rumour?
-who knows?but the game looks amazing.
-Did you see gtav ?
-yeah,of course I saw the game.
-gta v!!?
-( laughs)yes,I saw the masterpiece that R* is preparing for us.....mp3 dlc´s(more laughs).I can´t speak. I´m sorry.

-I wasted much time asking about gta v to the two people that I consider could know the release date(I´m speaking about people who I have access if I´m persuasive ,people that know everybody and everybody know them. of course I can´t speak with nobody in R*).Of course,they didn´t tell me a date,but both said ;
" If I have to bet I would say sooner rather than later ",
"are you sure?" I said,
"yes,pretty sure."
This looks not conclusive at all(because it´s not conclusive),but people who I´m speaking, knows really well how R* works......

TTWO PLANS;
I invest in stocks,but first I need to be sure that I know very well how these companies work.
This is what I know about TTWO and because I think that the announce of the release date will be in this month.

Why R* will give the release date or new info this month?
There is two assumptions that you need to consider.
If we want predict when we will have new info,we need take a look at ;
-the circumstancial situation that take two/R* live right now.
-the behaviour of R* in the past

Why take two/R* makes games? One word,MONEY.
They have two ways to win this money ;
-.Sell games
- Reaching the maximum profit with his stocks.
So this is what R* should do if we want to reach the maximum possible benefit;and this is that R* will do.
1;Info in this month.
2;gta v in october.

Why?

1; R* always updated the release date of the games that will be launched in a lapse of 6-12 months,before or in third quarter earnings(august 7 this year). This happened with RDR and LA noire and will happen with gta V.
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/26289...ayed-into-2011/

2;The power of the speculation and because July is the "bottom line" for take two finances.
Do you think that market speculation or the opinion of the most powerful analysts have consequences?
Check it out. Put your mouse over the A.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTWO+In...ource=undefined
http://ir.take2games.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=8...p=irol-analysts


What about market speculation?Remember that EA tried to buy TTWO in feb 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TTWO+In...urce=undefined;
http://kotaku.com/360123/ea-makes-offer-to-buy-take-2

What could happen if R* don´t says nothing before august 7?
They could lose the confident of the investors and right now,after lost a 41% from march 19 until now it´s not the best idea.
http://www.gtaforums.com/index.php?showtop...entry1061428718

3; The games sales plummet ,and the first months of 2013 could be a disaster for the industry .Oct/november are the best months to launch a game. october is the smart move . Launch the game in march,april or may 2013 is just stupid.

OCTOBER 2011;
October was the best non-holiday month the US video game market has had in a long time, with an impressive 10 games selling over 200,000 units on a multiplatform basis in four weeks. On a single platform basis, 18 games sold over 100,000 units.
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/88407/usa-...r-october-2011/

EARLY 2012;
In each of 2008, 2009, and 2010 the 50 million unit software point was crossed sometime in March.
That is, software sold more briskly.
But in 2011, it fell back into early April, indicating a significant slowdown.
This year, unit sales just crossed 51 million units at the very end of May.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/172518/..._turnaround.php

4;No way they are going to launch gta v between january and march 2013.Why?
If we consider that in terms of bussines TTWO and R* are the same corporation then no makes sense launch two AAA in a interval of 1 month.

Zelnick believes it can help(bioshock 2) drive profitability in the absence of a “1,000-pound gorilla” Grand Theft Auto release.
Publisher says the game can help drive profitability in a non Grand Theft Auto year.
That would make the difference for us. If you have four or five titles that are significantly successful, that will meaningfully change our profitability.
"We are investing heavily in making it bigger and better,” “We want it to be different enough that people will want to own it. BioShock got a lot of attention. Its brand is huge. It won lots of awards. But it wasn’t as huge a seller. I’m hopeful that BioShock 2 will benefit from the brand awareness
http://www.edge-online.com/news/take-two-t...ioshock-2-sales

-R* " optimal time frame" is may.
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/23760...delayed-to-may/

5;Forget the f*cking MP3.Gta v strategy is not relationated(totally) with MP3.
RDR was released on april 18 2010 and by the first days of july R* raised the seizure over the previews and offered pictures of LA noire. We read previews of LA noire 15 days after RDR was launched , so it´s just stupid think that we need to wait until the last mp3 dlc will be launched.

6;If we assume that gta V will be released in the FY13,then all the hints point to october,right? OK, but there is a problem because you say Rocktober, but we are in july and we don´t know a sh*t, why?

Because The dissipation of the hype.
"We're not going to announce it, we're not going to announce when we are going to announce it, and we are not going to announce a strategy about announcing it or about when we are going to announce it either, or about the announcement strategy surrounding the announcement of the strategy."Zelnick,TTWO ceo.
The usual with a gta game are 6 months of marketing starting with a preview in gameinformer. It´s the best strategy?
We have two big examples;
1;MP3; Tons of pictures,trailers,articles in the newswire...and what?
He failed miserably in sales.
2;Nintendo and apple; Wii release date was announced on september 16,2006 and launched two months after. And what?
Wii was the winner of this consoles generation and the less powerful console.And apple.....you know already,it´s the same strategy and they have a incomparable succes.

The investors know the reduced fiability of R* when they announce a release date,so if they say that gta v is ready to be launched in 6 months no one is going to believe you,in this case the investors could prefer invest when the info is recent and sell a few weeks later,then the profit is reduced.
But if you announce a release date in 3 months away from now the people are going to buy your stocks and not sell them until weeks or months the game was released.




What do you think guys?Is the bomb ready to explode this month?

[SmileyHam]

Let's just hope they do.


P.S. ; I only read the title because the thread is just too damn long.

[johnny_zoo]

tl:dr

heard it all before.

[BlackandWhite23]

O well..........

[LazyboyEight]

I appreciate all the work put into the thread, but I doubt they will announce the release date this month.

[r0eladn]

Can someone please read this and say if there is something interesting, some good arguments or something we didnt knew? Thanks.

[Watinho]

Something

user was warned for this post

This post has been edited by Ryan on Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 18:22

[Lakewolf52]

You know, he actually makes sense in his points.

This would be a good read even if it is speculation, unlike most of the crap posted here lately.

[Eagle-Eye]

[NKOH]

QUOTE (LazyboyEight @ Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 17:50)

I appreciate all the work put into the thread, but I doubt they will announce the release date this month.

Did you even read it? There are some excellent points in here.

[maxthemax100]

Great topic

[Dominik1411]

No they wont... They will announce it between september and november...

[Shadowmew]

I'm an idiot who likes to quote spam

This post has been edited by Ryan on Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 18:23

[bud23]

QUOTE (NKOH @ Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 17:56)

QUOTE (LazyboyEight @ Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 17:50) I appreciate all the work put into the thread, but I doubt they will announce the release date this month. Did you even read it? There are some excellent points in here.

Thanks mate. I just thought interesting to share this information with you.Remember that it´s not conclusive, it´s just rumors that I heard,and my personal knowledge about how take two/R* works.

[kill1uk]

i might just put it in a text-2-speach and listen to it instead of reading, part from that nice topic

[Degrees]

Same old sh*t only thing that sparked my interest was your convo with the Sony guy.

[LWE112]

Ryan f*ck off you queer editing my post get a life bro everyone on this forum hates you there was even a hate topic about you, little silly f*cker.

This post has been edited by LWE112 on Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 18:33

[MosquitoSmasher]

I read the whole thing and i must say i congratulate you, cause it was a enjoyable and good read too. It makes alot of sense, and i wish i could share your optimism, but this uncertainty sucks and i'm not gonna get my hopes up. The only reason is that i want to prevent some serious dissappointment. Especially the thing about the release date makes alot of sense, but we have no idea if Take Two thinks that way as well. We are going to have to wait and see.

Info this month? Time will tell...nobody knows and can't know for sure.

The part about the Sony guy was really interesting too, i'm sure they are creating a masterpiece.

[Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian]

Btw thanks OP for this topic! My guess was a October 2012 release date too. The value of the shares are very poorly right now. So they need something that amkes a lot of money.

This post has been edited by Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian on Sunday, Jul 8 2012, 18:47

[Gears of Skorge]

Seriously, some official info had better be announced before the end of August! I just hope all the rumours are true, and it will be announced at Games-con (15/08/12), failing that, it just has to be before August's end, It just has to......Right?