[Phatgordo13]

Note: As a long time forum member, I venture into this forum subsection with some trepidation. I do not have any insider information. This is only an article based on educated speculation. If you are going to participate in the discussion, I only ask you read my article in its entirety. Thank you..

Silence is Information: Answers to the highly anticipated GTA V
An article by: Phatgordo13

As a graduate student of business and legal studies I believe a lot can be assumed from the previous GTA's release dates and the lack of information regarding this upcoming title. First I would like to diagram the past, before looking to the future. These are the past release dates and the time between in order beginning with GTA III.


GTA III - PS2/XBox - October 2001
---
1 Year
---
GTA Vice City PS2/XBox - October 2002
---
2 Year
---
GTA San Andreas PS2/XBox - October 2004
---
3 Year/3.5 Year
---
GTA IV PS3/XBox 360 - October 2007/April 2008



Now, something needs to be pointed out about the release date of GTAIV which adds greatly to this discussion. It has been said many times that GTA IV was initially slated for an October 2007 release, making it the first addition to the current generation consoles. However, struggles with a new engine and/or plans to load the 2008 fiscal year profit led to the April 2008 release. If we look at the the releases of the past generation titles, seperately, we can see a conscious effort to spending more time on improving the series. It would be a safe assumption that Vice City was a huge improvement on III as San Andreas was to Vice City. We all have our own favorite titles, but it surely wouldnt be argued that each game didnt get better.

GTA Vice came out only a year after the release of III. The game was much larger, the story line greatly added upon, and everything was improved from mechanics to graphics and everything between. All of this was accomplished in one year. With the addition of San Andreas we saw an incredibly vast map with over the top additions and a grocery list of improvements and add ons with this release after two years. So a summation of the III era, and past generation GTA titles would be that the production time doubled to produce a greater product.

Fast forward to October 2007. We were eagerly anticipating the release of GTA IV that was to come in line with the previous October release dates. It did not happen. The folks at R* had created a completely new engine for GTA to run on with much work needed to reinvent the GTA universe on the current generation consoles. What we got was an april 2008 release which would be 6 months after the initially slated release date. Some have said this was due to complications with the new hardware/software, while others simply point the finger at publisher Take Two attempting to load their finances for the 2008 year. Both are plausible explanations seperately and together.

In any event, it will be five years in October since the initial October 2007 release date of GTA IV. If we work our numbers exclusively off the given facts, then it has already been over four years since the actual April 2008 release date, and October 2012 would be 3.5 years, matching the production time from San Andreas to GTA IV.

However, being that this is only the second release on the current generation hardware, there is no way to predict any pattern with complete certainty. What I extrapulate from the data is a handful of questions and concerns. I have always viewed the October 2007 date as the assumed date in which the product could have been released, barring no outside influence. That being said, we have already well surpassed the production date of R*'s entry into the current generation hardware.(GTA IV/3-3.5 years) Surely, it takes much more time to create such vast, sand box style, games on the current hardware. What concerns me/excites me is that R* cannot blame much of this development time on making the leap to new hardware and software. Unless, of course, they have created a whole new working engine for GTA V, which would be shocking to say the least. The engine for the game is already there. Additionally, R* has much experience with the hardware following such titles as RDR, L.A. Noir, and Max Payne.

My conclussion upon the anticpated release date leaves two definitive answers. Either:

A. The game is done, as suggested by some reports, and we can expect rapid marketing in late July early August for an October 2012 release.

or

B. Take Two is directing the release towards the 2013 fiscal year which would mean an April 2013 release date.


So what can we expect based on all this data? This is the most exciting, and troublesome part for me. We assume R* is implementing the same engine and mechanics from GTA IV. This means a lot of the game will be tweaks, improvements, and add ons to everything GTA IV previously established. To some, GTA IV was a dissapointment, but remember, when IV came out, it was the most beautifully vast game to date. This means that the majority of the time (5 years) has been spent on the physical world (map, charters, music, etc), story line, and anything new implemented by devolpment. This is an incredible amount of time considering the majority of GTA IV's development was spent creating the new engine and understanding the hardware.

We know this map will be vast, and we expect that. I truely believe the map size will be well beyond any other game title by comparison. R* certainly beats to its own drum, but I think it would be foolish to believe that they don't pay attention to whats going on around them in the sand box genre they created. For example, we can look at a game like Skyrim, which had less dependency on a main plot and more so on the journey of the main character through out the world as they saw fit. I found the replayability, beyone the main plot, in Skyrim to be the longest and most fullfilling for any title I have ever played. That says a lot coming from a GTA fan boy.

I have to assume, in my best educated extrapulation from the extended devlopment period, that GTA V is going to be as innovating, if not more so, than GTA III was. How so, you ask? I have spent a lot of time cruising the internet, forums, news reels etc. over the past year or so coming up with my own ideas and guesses that make the most sense to me. I believe history will reflect on Skyrim as a turning point for the open world/sand box genre. I believe GTA V can expand upon that, and make their title, the game changer of the same genre.

One of the main complaints of GTA IV was the lack of replayability. Beyond the story line, there was not much to do other than the usual car jacking, rampaging, chaos enducing fun. This was never a problem for the GTA fan in previous titles, but because Liberty City seemed so alive on its own, the player cant help but realize the limited interaction with the world around it. Its sort of like the moment in Wizard of OZ where the curtain is pulled back and you realize it was all smoke and mirrors. The world wasnt as much alive as it was just made to APPEAR alive. Much of the coding for pedestrians, that was so innovative at the time, led them to carry out actual tasks. For example, if you followed a pedestrian for awhile you might see them stop at a mail box, then carry on to a bus stop, where they would catch a ride and get off at another stop. However, there was no intention of the NPC to actually serve any purpose but only appear to be relevent. Now obviously, every NPC cannot have its own memory and running AI on this current hardware. However, in light of games such as Skyrim, the players actions should carry over to directly effect the surrounding world, and vice versa.

What I predict as the next step in sand box/open world titles is a truely, living, breathing world. I dont believe we'll fully see this come to fruition until the next generation, but we have yet to see the full potential of our current hardware. My prediction is simple. A working economy. Much like the property purchases of Vice City and Vice City Stories, the player will be able to purchase large sums of property through out the playable world. Each property will expand into a number of sub quests to fully utilize the property purchase. Furthermore, maintainence of each property will be available and/or required to continue operating a given property.

For example, some properties may be under constant threat of attack by rival gangs such as in Vice City and San Andreas. Where as other properties may only offer optional sub quests such as drug deals, assasinations, etc. The incredibly vast map that GTA V will behold, along side a cognitive, uniquely different oppertunity at each property can offer incredibly long periods of replayability beyond the main quest. Such an idea to have a working drug economy is a profound step to creating a living GTA world. If the purchases you make within the city directly effect the prices, and your competition, than opens a pandoras box of possability in terms of continuous game play. For the first time in the GTA series, money will actually mean something. In the example of the drug world, you will be able to spend your money to supply your dealears and organization with drugs, guns, and places of business. As your operation expands you will be responsible of hiring distribution and dealing with all of the trouble that follows. Furthermore, conflict will rise with competing organizations and in the case of drug warfare, the casualties suffered will effect the power of the given organization. If a leader of a drug organization was killed, or the organization was simply bought out, the economy would fluctuate to open increased market share for new NPCs to step in. I am not so much concerned with the ability to customize weapons, cars, and characters (although I do believe we will see all, to some degree) as much as I believe a true expantion upon the world surrounding the character.

The incredibly long time it has taken to bring this game to us, which most certainly will come in the next 10 months, can be attributed to the truely innovative gameplay R* must showcase. My theory is only that, a theory, and by no means a certainty. I do believe it makes the most sense considering the past, and the limited information we know about the upcoming title. I am very much excited to see what GTA V will bring but for the same reason, I have my concerns.

A recent article commented on the recent lack of silence by the part of R*. The article praised R* for intelligent marketing, and this upset some readers. As a marketing major, I agree completely with the article, strategy, and even had the exact same conversation with a friend not to long ago. If you google anything GTA V related, there are pages upon pages of links to articles online, in magazines, and pod casts commenting on speculation and rumors based on the anticipated release date and game content. For over 6 months now, R* has ridden the coat tails of one single trailer release. All of this publicity, for free. FOR FREE. This is a marketing dream. While people will complain, as do I, about the lack of information, in fact, it wont prevent a single person from buying the game. Some may threaten to via forums, tweets, etc. but the truth of the matter is this game is going to shatter records. I expect GTA V to break the 24 hour sales record, and one day be the highest grossing title to date. I truely believe that is a safe bet.

However, the recent resignation of the marketing director at R* raised some concerns if he was forced due to lack of Max Payne sales. R* marketed the hell out of their latest release, as they do all titles, and they did not reach the numbers they had hoped for. I dont think thats due to bad marketing, after all I bought it, and I am some what unfamiliar with the series. I just believe Max Payne is not that good of a game. I think for what it is, a linear shooter, it is a fantastic title. Yet, if someone asked me whether or not to buy it, I would tell them to go pick up Red Dead Redemption, Skyrim, or even GTA IV, if they havnt already, instead.

So, all considering, my main concern is that if GTA V comes out and is just a new map and story from GTA IV I think time will beat the hell out of R* for making fans wait so long. It may come out and receive 9/10s and even 10/10s, but if this game is not truely going to be innovative and mind blowing than buyers are going to look back and say....I waited 5 years....for this? Sales may still go through the roof for the title, but any GTA title following such a release would suffer a great deal for this. This is not only a huge concern for me as a gamer, but another reason why I believe GTA V will be so great. I assure you, there are plenty of people within R* who have considered the same details I have just reviwed in this discussion. That being said, they know the score. The know how important a great title is for the future of their company.



In conclussion, I predict GTA V to be a turning point in gaming history. Also, I predict a 2012 October release, but if we do not see information by the middle of August, than expect an April 2013 release....Guarenteed.

[gionascm2]

Wow very insighful and a great read I strongly agee with you.

[GTA-King]

Thank you for this. It was a great read! I agree with you about everything.

[Verdant Meadows Pedestrian]

I've spent a very long time thinking about the same kind of things on many occasions. My conclusion, when I actually get to any conclusion, is that GTA V will blow ALL of our minds for good, and will not only be a hit in videogame industry, but a cultural hit much in the way San Andreas was. People don't see this because they're all pissed off for the lack of info (yes, I'm pissed off too, you can't imagine how much).

This post has been edited by Verdant Meadows Pedestrian on Friday, Jun 29 2012, 01:34

[Hammertime12]

That was a fantastic article! You make great points unlike a few people on here that is desperate for information. Have a cookie!

[Spaghetti Cat]

Like the bigfoot of the V forums...a well written coherent and thoughtful article. I'm sure some no-view rag or internet site is gonna steal this and claim it as their own. Anyways, good work.


I'd say that they have been tweaking the engine with games like Red Dead and Max Payne. Using these titles to work on what they would be using in V. Also R* North has had a hand in each of these games (and LA Noir) which has probably kept them busy. Though I'm sure some work has been going on at some level the whole time. Plus they have been supposedly working on AGENT as well, a stand alone game from North, but who knows at this point...another bigfoot lol

Like the idea of a real living-breathing city. With people actually doing activities and having lives with consequence would be something. I'd expect some level of San Andreas side-missions/activities. They were going in this direction a bit with the Liberty City Stories, so hopefully we'll get more of that as well. More interiors would be nice too.

[Buffaloro]

QUOTE (Phatgordo13 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 21:02)

October 2012 would be 3.5 years, matching the production time from San Andreas to GTA IV.

This is the only thing that bothered me in your wall of text. I think it should be 4.5 years, not 3.5 years. As like you said, we passed the 4 year milestone already.

Besides that, great article. Cheers!

[XTREME0235]

Definitely a good read for those anticipating the arrival of a new GTA title like a true fan would.
The points you make are something I think all of us can agree with and your report in general was structured brilliantly.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts, I definitely have more of an open mind about the possibilities of an October 2012/April 2013 release schedule after reading that.

[wwinterj]

I can't believe I read all that.
You make some valid points TC and I agree with a lot that you said how I highly doubt we will see the game this year but that is just my opinion.

[mvega0422]

Awesome read, agree with nearly everything you say, will type more later.

[locolow2011]

Whoa, it must have taken you a lot of time to do write this, anyway i'm gonna go with option B. because i sincerely don't see V coming out this year, but it has to come before Take 2s fiscal year ends so April '13 sounds just perfect.

[wildstyle91]

Finally an interesting and well thought out thread. I agree that the economy will play a big roll in the game and it will be all about investing in property. The problem is that I don't think it will be such a big leap from gta4 especially on current gen. Hopefully I am proved wrong but Rockstar need to do something special to make it truly ground breaking.

In terms of release date, I really don't have a clue, the marketing strategy is bizarre and the secretiveness means the release date is anyone's guess.

[i am a girl on the internet]

QUOTE (locolow2011 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 21:38)

but it has to come before Take 2s fiscal year ends so April '13 sounds just perfect.

I'm pretty sure their fiscal year ends one month before that, on March 31st.

[Adriaan]

QUOTE (Phatgordo13 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 23:02)

My conclussion upon the anticpated release date leaves two definitive answers. Either: A. The game is done, as suggested by some reports, and we can expect rapid marketing in late July early August for an October 2012 release. or B. Take Two is directing the release towards the 2013 fiscal year which would mean an April 2013 release date.

We are already in it. Take-Two's 2013 fiscal year started on April 1st, 2012. It ends on March 31st, 2013. If it releases in April of 2013 that would fall within fiscal '14, meaning they will miss their high projected earnings estimates for their fiscal year '13.

Read: GTAV Definitely out by March 2013

This post has been edited by Adriaan on Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 22:00

[Phatgordo13]

QUOTE (Adriaan @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 16:54)

QUOTE (Phatgordo13 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 23:02) My conclussion upon the anticpated release date leaves two definitive answers. Either: A. The game is done, as suggested by some reports, and we can expect rapid marketing in late July early August for an October 2012 release. or B. Take Two is directing the release towards the 2013 fiscal year which would mean an April 2013 release date. We are already in it. Take-Two's 2013 fiscal year started on April 1st, 2012. It ends on March 31st, 2013. If it releases in April of 2013 that would fall within fiscal '14, meaning they will miss their high projected earnings estimates for their fiscal year '13.

My understanding was that the fiscal year for 2012, begins in April 2012. Not saying you're wrong, but my point still stands. Just swap a 3 with a 4.

I apologize for the typeos, doing this all by phone was not fun.

[i am a girl on the internet]

QUOTE (Phatgordo13 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 21:59)

My understanding was that the fiscal year for 2012, begins in April 2012. Not saying you're wrong, but my point still stands. Just swap a 3 with a 4. I apologize for the typeos, doing this all by phone was not fun.

I'm sure you've seen T2's increased share-price predictions for Q3 and Q4 of the 2013 fiscal year. How would they meet (or even come close to) those predictions if the game is released in Q1 of the 2014 fiscal year?

[Sean5]

QUOTE (Verdant Meadows Pedestrian @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 21:22)

Just leave these forums, do you know how dumb you seem when you put those pictures up? You think your a badass for showing you waste time coming to these forums to show you didn't read one of the most educated speculations about V so far? Makes people think you have a single digit IQ to be honest.
OT: Well done on venturing into the V section and typing this.. I know most old time forumers dont

This post has been edited by Sean5 on Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 22:05

[Adriaan]

QUOTE (i am a girl on the internet @ Thursday, Jun 28 2012, 00:02)

QUOTE (Phatgordo13 @ Wednesday, Jun 27 2012, 21:59) My understanding was that the fiscal year for 2012, begins in April 2012. Not saying you're wrong, but my point still stands. Just swap a 3 with a 4. I apologize for the typeos, doing this all by phone was not fun. I'm sure you've seen T2's increased share-price predictions for Q3 and Q4 of the 2013 fiscal year. How would they meet (or even come close to) those predictions if the game is released in Q1 of the 2014 fiscal year?

What she said. You should definitely read up on that. They've been predicting those earning since last year ($2/share), which was upgraded in March to $2.25. The last time they had those high earnings was the year GTA IV came out. The highest in a non-GTA year was $1.02.

[BlackLightning]

This is a numbered sequel, which means they are going far past just tweaking the past game. Expect big things.

[Honest Bill]

Some of the things you envision for the future of game worlds, is exactly the direction i would like to see games going, it's just unfortunate that the gaming industry seems to moving away from depth and complexity for a more 'streamlined' (read dumbed down) experience to cater for the masses of casual gamers that have exploded on to the scene.. You know, the kind of players who will buy anything as long as it is hyped up..

Why worry about quality of product, when they could just spend a few quid on marketing, it seems efficient for other game developers.

I hope you're right though, and that Rockstar will pioneer the new era of open world freedom, i'll reserve my judgement until i've played GTAV..