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European Austerity
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sivispacem  |
Posted: Wednesday, May 16 2012, 19:53
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Wilderness of Mirrors

Group: The Connection
Joined: Feb 14, 2011



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| QUOTE (gtaivpc @ Wednesday, May 16 2012, 20:15) | I'm no expert in economics. However, I am sure that we are in the wrong path. My opinion is that the terms of the bailout package have to be renegotiated. If we manage to adopt a less murderous approach that actually encourages growth, then I am willing to put up with the austerity a bit more and stay in the eurozone. If this fails, I say let's go back to a national currency, even though the first months will probably be worse than being in hell... I think that in the long run we'll be better off. There's an article in the financial times that points it out, here.
If the current austerity policy continues to be applied, I can only fear what will come next. It will either be a violent revolution, with riots and hunders of casualaties, or a totalitarian regime which is even worse. That's why nobody that supports this austerity has a grasp of the situation. The greek society is on the verge of madness (even Sparta, which I live extremely close to ). How can it not be, when the official figures of unemployment are up to 21%? In the ages up to 25, it's over 50%. And we're not talking about uneducated youth. We're talking about doctors, engineers, lawyers, with postgraduate studies and PhDs. All those years of hard work, so that we have a mild chance of getting a sh*tty part time job (cashiers, waiters, etc.) that pays 300 euros a month, of course not with insurance. Why would someone defend this policy? |
Personally, I don't think Greece should have ever joined the Euro. It was never economically strong enough; it's had a history of having to inflate or deflate the value of its currency for various reasons, which is all well and good if you have a national currency but impossible if you are fiscally bound to other powers. It's a desperate situation in Greece- not just because of the cuts that are being forced onto it by the ECB but also because of an astonishing degree of political malpractice; decades of inflating their own growth figures whilst using loans to prop up the public purse; a societal approach which has until very recently actively encouraged large-scale tax evasion and fraud. If Greece hadn't joined the Euro then things would be much easier for them as they could manipulate their own currency, exchange rates and interest rates but that's very hard with a currency that's shared transnationally and especially dangerous for a country that's a net exporter and has spectacularly crippled their own economic capability by focusing most of their tax rises on private enterprise. And a fiscal union is always going to be governed by the most economically powerful nations in that union- something that the countries now struggling with the terms and conditions of bailouts and monetary assistance should have foreseen. The problems with unemployment in Greece are not, however, directly caused by the cuts- they're caused by a more fundamental political and social issue that's prevalent across much of Southern Europe- nations with often Socialist-leaning histories which have spend generations gradually biasing their economy in favour of a large public sector at the expense of the private. My partner's father spent many years working in Greece, Italy, Germany, Colombia and many other countries, and he insists to this day that Greece was the hardest country he ever worked in in terms of managing and administering private enterprise. Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland made, in my view, a fundamental mistake in the development of their economies which nations like Germany- and for that matter the US- did not; they developed a public sector service infrastructure before they had the economic power to pay for it. Look at countries like a company- if you run a huge deficit for prolonged periods of time because you expenditure is far higher than either your productivity or your income, then you are going to run into serious trouble. In that context, where is it wisest to spend money? On self-serving, internal services like administration which bring almost no income or productivity gain at the expense of a large outlay (like subsidising a bloated, poorly managed and monolithic public sector) or on activities that see increased trade?
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Irviding  |
Posted: Wednesday, May 16 2012, 21:14
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I love UAVs

Group: Andolini Mafia Family
Joined: Nov 6, 2008


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I agree with your entire post sivis, but I take issue with this - | QUOTE | The problems with unemployment in Greece are not, however, directly caused by the cuts
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If anything, actually, the problems in unemployment are directly caused by austerity. The points you brought up are the 'indirect' causes. It's simple textbook macroeconomics which Merkel and other European leaders have forgotten. You do not EVER cut spending during a recession. Doing so exacerbates it, look at the UK for example. The massive unemployment in Greece RIGHT NOW, this second, today, is not due to the structural problems you mentioned. A better approach would have been for the Greek government to put through reforms, with the help of the EU, that would phase out their massively bloated public sector as you mentioned, and replace it with a better, more free-market economy. Give people who are currently employed in the bloated public sector under 40 the resources, government paid through stimulus, to go and get degrees for tasks in the private sector. Set up a private sector to take on all of those employees. Subsidize it and give it massive tax breaks. Private enterprise does not grow on its own. The people currently employed in the public sector who are bread-winners, have families, etc. - they keep their jobs but take a pension cut. If they still had their own currency, they could devalue it to literally nothing and stimulate consumer spending. The Greek Economy is currently sitting around 170% debt to GDP ratio. Too bad - take out more debt. The Europeans should lend them massive capital (and keep watch on the Greek government obviously) and allow them to enact stimulus measures to get the economy growing. The debt will pay down itself. Britain did the same after WWII and paid down its what? 280% debt/gdp ratio in the late 40s/50s to around 60-70 in the 70s. It's that simple. Simple, textbook macroeconomics that have been thrown out the window by Merkel and her cohorts for a retarded and crippling economic policy. I think it's also important for me to add this: the Greek deficit has not gone down at all because the austerity measures pushed through caused the recession to worsen thus dampening tax receipts. So austerity fails on two ends. This post has been edited by Irviding on Wednesday, May 16 2012, 21:23
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Irviding  |
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I love UAVs

Group: Andolini Mafia Family
Joined: Nov 6, 2008


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Irviding  |
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I love UAVs

Group: Andolini Mafia Family
Joined: Nov 6, 2008


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| QUOTE (sivispacem @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 02:29) | | QUOTE (nightwalker83 @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 06:16) | | QUOTE (Irviding @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 15:38) | | QUOTE (nightwalker83 @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 00:04) | | I read somewhere online (forget where) that some US investor thinks that the Euro zone is going collapse within the next 3 months. |
A lot of American economists think that. I'm not a believer in the current system; you can't have a fiscal union without a political union. It just doesnt work. |
It amazes me how they thought the Eurozone would be a success given that it is made up of different groups of people whom are all wanting different things. With so much disagreement it is a wonder they even managed to get this far. |
The Eurozone did (and still does) have the ability to work. It just needs to be limited to central continental European states like Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. Even France aren't really economically stable enough for the Euro... |
How so? It's not about their economic stability. It's about the fact that you have one country dictating monetary and even fiscal policy to an entire continent. The only way for the Euro to properly work is for a political union to be created. France is quite stable economically, as was Spain. It's because of all the capital that flowed to these countries like Greece and Spain because of the Euro that caused their collapse what you have now is essentially a country being dictated to by a woman with a physics degree who knows absolutely nothing about simple macroeconomics.
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sivispacem  |
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Wilderness of Mirrors

Group: The Connection
Joined: Feb 14, 2011



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| QUOTE (Irviding @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 13:07) | | How so? It's not about their economic stability. It's about the fact that you have one country dictating monetary and even fiscal policy to an entire continent. The only way for the Euro to properly work is for a political union to be created. France is quite stable economically, as was Spain. It's because of all the capital that flowed to these countries like Greece and Spain because of the Euro that caused their collapse what you have now is essentially a country being dictated to by a woman with a physics degree who knows absolutely nothing about simple macroeconomics. |
I disagree. If France and Spain were truly economically stable, they would have behaved largely like Germany did when the crash came- that is, suffering a few quarters of negative growth and then reverting back to growing at a reasonable rate. I agree that it is nonsensical for nations to share fiscal policy unless they have some kind of political unity, which is why the German-Benelux Euro model works- because much as the individual member states may protest, they are basically all one country anyway. Though I agree with your sentiments about Germany dictating Euro-zone economic policy under current circumstances, that would cease to be an issue in terms of this hypothetical union as they might as well be a single nation anyway. For what its worth, I'm not entirely against the idea of a European super-state; that is, a proper nation state build from the basis of the EU or Euro zone. In economic and realpolitik terms it makes a lot of sense to have such a global player, and I think as long as social policy is internally administered by each sub-state and a degree of autonomy is still afforded its probably workable in the long-term as long as citizens forget their petty vindictive squabbles and embrace their new identity. This post has been edited by sivispacem on Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 17:14
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Irviding  |
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I love UAVs

Group: Andolini Mafia Family
Joined: Nov 6, 2008


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| QUOTE (sivispacem @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 12:11) | | QUOTE (Irviding @ Tuesday, Jun 5 2012, 13:07) | | How so? It's not about their economic stability. It's about the fact that you have one country dictating monetary and even fiscal policy to an entire continent. The only way for the Euro to properly work is for a political union to be created. France is quite stable economically, as was Spain. It's because of all the capital that flowed to these countries like Greece and Spain because of the Euro that caused their collapse what you have now is essentially a country being dictated to by a woman with a physics degree who knows absolutely nothing about simple macroeconomics. |
I disagree. If France and Spain were truly economically stable, they would have behaved largely like Germany did when the crash came- that is, suffering a few quarters of negative growth and then reverting back to growing at a reasonable rate. I agree that it is nonsensical for nations to share fiscal policy unless they have some kind of political unity, which is why the German-Benelux Euro model works- because much as the individual member states may protest, they are basically all one country anyway. Though I agree with your sentiments about Germany dictating Euro-zone economic policy under current circumstances, that would cease to be an issue in terms of this hypothetical union as they might as well be a single nation anyway.
For what its worth, I'm not entirely against the idea of a European super-state; that is, a proper nation state build from the basis of the EU or Euro zone. In economic and realpolitik terms it makes a lot of sense to have such a global player, and I think as long as social policy is internally administered by each sub-state and a degree of autonomy is still afforded its probably workable in the long-term as long as citizens forget their petty vindictive squabbles and embrace their new identity. | But that's a result of their own doings; it's not because of intrinsic economic problems. The reason Germany got by essentially scott free was by how they responded to the crash. Instead of layoffs, they furloughed, cut wages, cut hours, etc. This allowed things to come back relatively nicely once the recession officially ended. France, on the other hand, ran its crisis response differently and are now paying for it. I'm not just talking about government workers by the way, I'm talking about how the German private sector responded as well as public. Germany, though, is not growing at a reasonable rate right now. I'm not going to google the specific number but I believe they are growing around 0.2-0.3 percent this year so far, as it contracted in early 2012 I know for a fact. France is growing around the same area, sputtering along with practically no growth. So this notion that Germany is in a better place right now in terms of growth is frankly wrong. It would cease to be an issue if a hypothetical union came about because no one state could dictate the others. It could be like a United Countries of Europe, following the US model of each country getting a fixed number of representatives for one house and based on their population (or maybe economic size) in another house. That would allow Germany to stop controlling the Eurozone with its draconian policies.
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Chorup  |
Posted: Tuesday, Jun 19 2012, 15:30
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Trick

Group: Members
Joined: Jan 7, 2010


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| QUOTE (gtaivpc @ Wednesday, May 16 2012, 18:44) | | Lazy greeks has become a slogan but that is totally untrue, for many reasons I am willing to go through if someone really wants me to. |
I have both been to Greece and have family living in present day Greece, and let me tell you it is true. Perhaps not for some, but for a vast proportion of the population sheer laziness and an inept work attitude has led to their demise. When they are finally forced to tighten the belt, the people resist because they want to keep living the way they were, albeit in an economic crisis. This is one of the reasons they are extremely anti-austerity, choosing to vote for commies and fascist nazis in order to restore their 'easy' lifestyle. They may be doing it tough now, but let me tell you, as corrupt and irresponsible as current and previous governments may have been, the people are also to blame. This is why I have little sympathy for Greece. They have essentially been living the good life until now, yet don't want to alter their lifestyle in times of economic downturn...it's absurd. The government would previously borrow and borrow, throwing money at people...yet spending little on infrastructure and future projects/initiatives. Now the the tap has run dry, we see the dire consequences. If I mentioned my ethnicity here, people would probably say my opinion is biased. If I were to consider that particular factor, then I assure you I would be saying something different right now. This is how it is, and if you don't look out for your own future then you only have yourself to blame. They should also be kicked out of the eurozone. It is absolutely ridiculous that candidate countries are given hurdle after hurdle to join, yet Greece almost brings down all of Europe and the union is fine with it. Time to set some standards and discipline. The EU is rubbish anyways, so I perceive them as somewhat insignificant.
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KaRzY6  |
Posted: Tuesday, Jun 19 2012, 23:37
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♧ Sick Kunt ♤

Group: Members
Joined: Oct 24, 2011


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| QUOTE (Chorup @ Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 02:30) | | QUOTE (gtaivpc @ Wednesday, May 16 2012, 18:44) | | Lazy greeks has become a slogan but that is totally untrue, for many reasons I am willing to go through if someone really wants me to. |
I have both been to Greece and have family living in present day Greece, and let me tell you it is true. Perhaps not for some, but for a vast proportion of the population sheer laziness and an inept work attitude has led to their demise. When they are finally forced to tighten the belt, the people resist because they want to keep living the way they were, albeit in an economic crisis. This is one of the reasons they are extremely anti-austerity, choosing to vote for commies and fascist nazis in order to restore their 'easy' lifestyle.
They may be doing it tough now, but let me tell you, as corrupt and irresponsible as current and previous governments may have been, the people are also to blame. This is why I have little sympathy for Greece. They have essentially been living the good life until now, yet don't want to alter their lifestyle in times of economic downturn...it's absurd. The government would previously borrow and borrow, throwing money at people...yet spending little on infrastructure and future projects/initiatives. Now the the tap has run dry, we see the dire consequences.
If I mentioned my ethnicity here, people would probably say my opinion is biased. If I were to consider that particular factor, then I assure you I would be saying something different right now. This is how it is, and if you don't look out for your own future then you only have yourself to blame.
They should also be kicked out of the eurozone. It is absolutely ridiculous that candidate countries are given hurdle after hurdle to join, yet Greece almost brings down all of Europe and the union is fine with it. Time to set some standards and discipline. The EU is rubbish anyways, so I perceive them as somewhat insignificant. | I also believe this. My father told me that the majority of Greeks are lazy. They only want to work very short days, and retire at about 50.
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gtaivpc  |
Posted: Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 12:33
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I am legend too.

Group: Members
Joined: Dec 6, 2008


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OMG. It is unbelievable how misinformed you are. It is unbelievable how the media has brainwashed you SO MUCH. LIVING OVER OUR MEANS? Jesus christ, kids are fainting in schools because they have nothing to eat, people are being evicted all the time and more and more are becoming homeless, youth unemployment is over 50% while in general it is 22%, THE MAJORITY of workers are doing part time jobs, and even those who have full time jobs work from 10 up to 14 hours a day for as low as 500 euros a month (we are talking about people with postgraduate diplomas!!), and of course NO THEY DO NOT f*ckING RETIRE AT 50 YEARS OLD WHO THE f*ck IS TELLING YOU THAT, for example any of my teachers are 60-70 years old, and to be exact I can't think of a person I know under 65 who has retired. the only solution for young students is to move abroad, jobs are now impossible to find. robberies and thefts are more common than ever especially in the big cities. state-insured patients with cancer didn't get their meds for two weeks because the government couldn't pay the bills to the pharmacies. and of course the neonazis that got into the parliament with 7% of the vote are taking advantage of this HUMILIATING situation. yet you are calling us lazy? get a clue goddamnit. get a clue. I am so outraged by your bullsh*t. this is un-be-lievable. it is pathetic that the Greeks have voted for this corrupt party at the elections. young people of course didn't vote for it, it was the elderly, the uneducated, and the rural population that did. they were really terrorized by the media. the f*cking media... so much propaganda. if this austerity continues, I am pretty sure we'll end up in a civil war. the greek people are more divided than ever. I only hope germany goes into recession, NOT because I hate the germans or anything, just because Merkel has to realise this is NOT the way to go. if they really wanted us to repay the debt, they would try to spark growth. the debt is now HUGE and definitely not manageable. my opinion is, give it 3 months. if the policy changes then good. if it doesn't then I say get out of the euro and eventually the growth will start. the first years or so will be difficult, but at least we'll be on the right path! now we are both humiliated and poor, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel either! the greek problem was both due to tax evasion (which was admittedly high in the past, but not anymore because people don't have money to pay any taxes), a dysfunctional structure of the public sector and bureaucracy that STILL is there because of the corrupted governments. oh plus, tax evasion is still high in the higher classes. but the IMF, the ECB and the EU don't care about that! they only want to f*cking starve us. if you think though, that today all we are doing is leeching of the german taxpayers' money then you are greatly delusional. I suggest you watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLvkeqRbS34I will not say sorry for me being uncivilised in this post because of the sheer ignorance that has been spouted. This post has been edited by gtaivpc on Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 12:39
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OchyGTA  |
Posted: Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 13:56
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Mus' Come A Road

Group: Members
Joined: Dec 21, 2010


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The thing is buddy, whose gonna lend you that money if you leave the Euro in the first place?
I agree with you with regards to austerity measures not working to an extent. First of all, you need to consider the Greek situation. From what I can gather, your current debt measures at 170% of your GDP. It can't be denied that reckless spending got you into this problem in the first place. On one hand, you have most of Europe advocating austerity measures and why shouldn't they, the Greeks overspent and now need to cut back. It seems to be a fair punishment. However, in terms of escaping economic collapse, I think it's the wrong way too go. It's here that I sway towards Keynesian ideas in which one must spend to boost AD and in turn, spark economic growth. It's a pretty sound macroeconmic theory and whilst it may give you stable econmic growth, how it affects the ither macroecomic objectives is still significant. There are four macroeconomic objectives: Sustainable growth, stable prices (low inflation), low unemployment and a low budget deficit. Let's say Greece leave the Euro and begin a policy of government expenditure. In the short term, this will give you a grand amount of economic growth and may encourage some foreign investment into the country as well as increasing consumer confidence. From this, AD will rise and cause a multiplier effect etc. To add to this, an increase in government expenditure is likely to decrease unemployment as the multiplier effect will allow firms too expand and hire more workers so on so forth. However, by spending you invoke two big problems into the Greek econmy. First of all, you will have the issue of rapidly rising inflation. An increase in AD always leads to an increase in the price level and I can see this getting very out of hand if the Greeks return to the levels of spending that we have seen previously. Secondly, this does nothing to help your budget deficit. Whilst you may argue that an increase in economic growth will allow you to repay these debts but I wholeheartedly disagree. The loans your government would need to start any spending policy would come with astronomical interest rates and would very likely be short-term. Further more, whose to say the EU would supprot the Greek government after they had left the Euro anyway. I can't see it being on the same level as the inner circle would likely turn to those a part of the Euro who need help a la Spain and Italy.
Quite frankly, to accuse us of being judgemental as to the causes of the Greek economic crisis is farcical. No-one can deny that the Greeks have an extremely "relaxed" lifestyle in comparison to other European nations and what's more, is that your government got you into this mess by recklessly overspending and putting the Euro at risk of collapsing. Granted not all of the latter is your fault but to be irresponsible enough to manipulate data so you could join such an important economic intergration is worthy of criminal liabilty in my eyes.
To conclude, I believe that we need to find a balance between austerity and spending to aid the Eurozone's recovery. In the long-term, the austerity measures will pay off significantly but in the short-term, I think that Merkel (since she is the figure head of all this) should advocate some public spending to try and boost consumer confidence/spending. Looking at this on a wider scale, there can be no doubt that we need the help of both the Chinese and American markets to buy our exports. Now would be the perfect time since the Euro has depreciated significantly meaning countries like China, if they stopped manipulating their exchange rate, would be able to sort out the balance of payments on current account deficit. But, that's a whole different argument.
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gtaivpc  |
Posted: Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 15:22
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I am legend too.

Group: Members
Joined: Dec 6, 2008


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The post wasn't directed to you, but to those who think laziness is a DNA trait of the Greeks. I am not denying the causes, but calling a nation lazy is simply offending! I wrote in the above post that there indeed was much tax evasion and there still is in the upper classes of society. There still is terrible bureaucracy and a largely dysfunctional public sector. However calling us lazy is only provocating, when the situation is as bad as I described. Are the Spanish lazy too? Are the Irish lazy too? The Portuguese?
I do not know economics. What I do know for sure is that we are on the wrong path and calling us lazy may be easy, but it's not going to solve the problem. Of course I do not advocate reckless spending. But right now there is no spending at all and the economy is stagnant. The thing with pro-austerity parties is that they are also corrupted. They are the ones that got us into this mess (yes, the people allowed them to and they are responsible for that). So it's foolish to think they will solve the problem, even if the policy was right (which is not!).
I do not in any way think leaving the Euro is a good idea, but if we are in this situation IN the euro, and it's getting worse day by day, we'll all end up starving! This has to end someday.
Right now we need a government that acts fast and effectively, a government without corruption that also makes the people hope for something better. No one, especially an underpaid 12h/day worker, can be productive in this depressed society.
What they have achieved so far is making people hostile towards ANY reform, and that is because those that have been made have made things worse... All I can say is that if Europe's approach doesn't change, this isn't going to end well. Maybe only for us, maybe for the countries that have been bailed out, maybe for the whole EZ.
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Irviding  |
Posted: Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 20:45
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I love UAVs

Group: Andolini Mafia Family
Joined: Nov 6, 2008


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| QUOTE (sivispacem @ Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 03:17) | | Most of the Mediterranean countries have comparatively low retirement ages, which I've always found quite odd as they tend to have very long life-spans thanks to their diet. But I'm not entirely sold on the productivity issue- my partner's father spent a number of years working in Greece and in his industry (petrochemicals) the staff worked 8 til 6, albeit with a two hour lunch. I can't speak for all employment sectors, but averaged over a week that means more working hours than in the UK, for instance. I think the economic issues for the Greek government are more a product of tax evasion than they are poor working practices- Greece has (or at the very least had) about the lowest return per capita in terms of taxation in the Euro zone despite having actual taxes on par with most other countries. |
I think it's fair to carp with some of the Greek practices. Though from a purely economics standpoint, most will not sit here and objectively say that the reason for all of these probems is that Greek people are lazy. If you refer to the following chart -  You'll see that Greece actually was running relatively small deficits before it joined the Euro. It was not until it joined the Euro and all that capital poured in that things got out of hand. | QUOTE | I do not in any way think leaving the Euro is a good idea, but if we are in this situation IN the euro, and it's getting worse day by day, we'll all end up starving! This has to end someday.
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It is, though. If you left the Euro and then your government flooded the markets with drachmas, you'd be in a much better place. Prices would go down from their ridiculous levels now, for one thing.
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Mike Tequeli  |
Posted: Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 21:39
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American non-Voter at Heart

Group: The Connection
Joined: Jan 19, 2004


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| QUOTE (sivispacem @ Wednesday, Jun 20 2012, 08:17) | | Most of the Mediterranean countries have comparatively low retirement ages, which I've always found quite odd as they tend to have very long life-spans thanks to their diet. But I'm not entirely sold on the productivity issue- my partner's father spent a number of years working in Greece and in his industry (petrochemicals) the staff worked 8 til 6, albeit with a two hour lunch. I can't speak for all employment sectors, but averaged over a week that means more working hours than in the UK, for instance. I think the economic issues for the Greek government are more a product of tax evasion than they are poor working practices- Greece has (or at the very least had) about the lowest return per capita in terms of taxation in the Euro zone despite having actual taxes on par with most other countries. | Just because they might be working many hours doesn't mean they're productive, especially when Spain and Greece have 20%+ unemployment. You're probably right about it being a revenue/collection problem, but Greece does have fairly low labor productivity. As seen in this handy chart. I had more difficulty finding good productivity numbers than I thought I would.
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