[sivispacem]

QUOTE (PrivateFirstClass @ Wednesday, Apr 25 2012, 14:00)

QUOTE (Slamman @ Wednesday, Apr 25 2012, 12:38) Reports yesterday showed that UN peacekeepers would be let in, about 30 of them, there would be a cease fire active during their inspections, but then the hostility and killing began again once they had left. John McCain was interviewed for this story and he feels this would be funny if it weren't so serious, his thoughts are to get weapons to the people who are hoping to bring down the government, in the same way Libya wanted liberation and as part of the on going Arab Spring revolts, I believe it is part of that movement as I said in the past "there would be a cease fire active during their inspections" at this part i had to laugh, how many times did assad confirmed that he do a cease fire ? he won´t stop that sh*t, i´ve lost count in how many times he confirmed a cease fire, yet the killing goes on...

There are already independent monitors on the ground, with around 300 due in the near future. Assad has catagorically refused foreign troops (i.e a peacekeeping force), most likely because they can respond to breaches in the ceasefire militarily rather than just with strong words and sharp fruit. From my perspective, the people to really watch out for will be Turkey, who have apparently been considering their own unilateral intervention due to the worsening humanitarian situation on the border and several instances of Syrian armed forces firing into refugee camps on the Turkish side.

[Irviding]

QUOTE (sivispacem @ Wednesday, Apr 25 2012, 09:12)

QUOTE (PrivateFirstClass @ Wednesday, Apr 25 2012, 14:00) QUOTE (Slamman @ Wednesday, Apr 25 2012, 12:38) Reports yesterday showed that UN peacekeepers would be let in, about 30 of them, there would be a cease fire active during their inspections, but then the hostility and killing began again once they had left. John McCain was interviewed for this story and he feels this would be funny if it weren't so serious, his thoughts are to get weapons to the people who are hoping to bring down the government, in the same way Libya wanted liberation and as part of the on going Arab Spring revolts, I believe it is part of that movement as I said in the past "there would be a cease fire active during their inspections" at this part i had to laugh, how many times did assad confirmed that he do a cease fire ? he won´t stop that sh*t, i´ve lost count in how many times he confirmed a cease fire, yet the killing goes on... There are already independent monitors on the ground, with around 300 due in the near future. Assad has catagorically refused foreign troops (i.e a peacekeeping force), most likely because they can respond to breaches in the ceasefire militarily rather than just with strong words and sharp fruit. From my perspective, the people to really watch out for will be Turkey, who have apparently been considering their own unilateral intervention due to the worsening humanitarian situation on the border and several instances of Syrian armed forces firing into refugee camps on the Turkish side.

If Turkey went in and fought Syria would NATO be called in to provide AID do you think? I know they can't invoke Article V since they weren't attacked but regardless it seems like while Turkey would clearly beat Syria in a war, it would not be some quick steamrolling and would probably ensue massive casualties for either side.

[Butters 2011]

I have to agree with something that was said on ITV news earlier; Why's it taking so long to get UN peacekeepers in? The so-called 'cease-fire' clearly isn't working, especially after the suicide bombing earlier, so why are they delaying getting them into the country? Genuine question.

[sivispacem]

QUOTE (Butters 2011 @ Friday, Apr 27 2012, 23:09)

Why's it taking so long to get UN peacekeepers in?

Because they aren't sending in peacekeepers. That would require a UNSC resolution.

[Butters 2011]

QUOTE (sivispacem @ Saturday, Apr 28 2012, 23:31)

QUOTE (Butters 2011 @ Friday, Apr 27 2012, 23:09) Why's it taking so long to get UN peacekeepers in? Because they aren't sending in peacekeepers. That would require a UNSC resolution.

I've clearly used the wrong word then...think I meant to just say the UN Monitors?

[Typhus]

Well, how about this? It seems that Mr. Anan's peace plan didn't work out.
Assad's paid thugs have killed 90 people, including 35 children:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18221461

Can there be any doubt now that force is the only language this uncivilised barbarian understands? Even when the world gives him a chance at peace, a chance he has done NOTHING to deserve, he has to push it just that little bit further.
I maintained that a peace plan was a bad idea because it implied Assad was the legitimate ruler of Syria. And now I feel vindicated in this assertion.
This man does not represent his people, he feels no shame and clearly no remorse at the actions of his soldiers.

There can be no peace whilst this butcher still holds the Presidency. How many more people have to die before these weak kneed diplomats understand that?

[3niX]

Well...

It seems as though the issue has lost its momentum/presence in the public mind (which is probably what the Syrian leadership was hoping for). The problem with public interest is that it can get diverted quite easily.


This probably puts my thoughts in perspective.


This post has been edited by 3niX on Saturday, May 26 2012, 21:04

[Typhus]

Seems like a good time to bump this thread. The rebels have launched an attack on Damascus itself, it would seem. And, after using a suicide bomber, have managed to take out Assad's defence minister, his brother-in-law and another close advisor. Many more officials have been injured in what looks like a clear indication of the growing strength of the rebel movement:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18882149

My opinion? As good as it is that the movement against Assad is gaining pace, this assassination bears worrying similarities to those carried out by al Queda. Who, if memory serves me correctly, are actually aiding the rebels in the hope of setting up an Islamist regime once he is deposed.
So whilst we may be optimistic about their chances of gaining some measure of freedom, we should still exercise caution until we know the true nature of the revolutionaries.

[sivispacem]

QUOTE (Typhus @ Wednesday, Jul 18 2012, 18:02)

My opinion? As good as it is that the movement against Assad is gaining pace, this assassination bears worrying similarities to those carried out by al Queda. Who, if memory serves me correctly, are actually aiding the rebels in the hope of setting up an Islamist regime once he is deposed.

If I may interject, suicide bombing is a technique embraced by al-Qaeda but not actually devised by them. The first real notable use of VBIEDs was by far-right, anti-Zionist organisations in Lebanon. Ironically, many of these organisations were centred in Syria, but I digress. Personally, I don't believe that there is any great desire for political Islam in Syria- if Libya, with its smaller Christian minority and relatively similar (or at least comparable) demographic and social structure otherwise (if anything, less religiously conservative in Syria) has seen a post-revolution secularism, I have relative optimism for Syria.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Quite an interesting attack. The fact that they were able to get inside is quite incredible/worrysome. From what I herd it was a bodyguard that detonated a suicide vest. Also the free-syrian army and the alphabet soup of islamists are both claiming credit. Who knows? FSA had been denying any of the car bombings and other suicide attack, now they claim this one. Sounds like an AQ attack to me, fits their MO, but again who knows. Not a lot of clear info coming outta Syria since this all happened.

Also, a lot of fighting in the capital as of late from what I hear. Might get a lot worse before anything gets any better.

[EscoLehGo]

I saw a ticker on the news that the whole regime could bottom out in the next 36 hours. I'd hate to see what they'll do to Assad if it does, they paraded Ghadafi's corpse around for days in Libya after his ship sunk.

[sivispacem]

QUOTE (EscoLehGo @ Wednesday, Jul 18 2012, 21:57)

I saw a ticker on the news that the whole regime could bottom out in the next 36 hours. I'd hate to see what they'll do to Assad if it does, they paraded Ghadafi's corpse around for days in Libya after his ship sunk.

I think its fair to say that Assad will VX/Sarin gas most of his major population centres before being overrun. Syria is believed to have a pretty sizable cache of chemical weapons and I fear that we could see the first real use of WMDs since 1945 in the next few weeks.

[Typhus]

QUOTE (sivispacem @ Wednesday, Jul 18 2012, 21:06)

QUOTE (EscoLehGo @ Wednesday, Jul 18 2012, 21:57) I saw a ticker on the news that the whole regime could bottom out in the next 36 hours. I'd hate to see what they'll do to Assad if it does, they paraded Ghadafi's corpse around for days in Libya after his ship sunk. I think its fair to say that Assad will VX/Sarin gas most of his major population centres before being overrun. Syria is believed to have a pretty sizable cache of chemical weapons and I fear that we could see the first real use of WMDs since 1945 in the next few weeks.

But surely if he did that, he'd alienate Russia and China. Could they both still support him if he went to those extremes?

[sivispacem]

QUOTE (Typhus @ Thursday, Jul 19 2012, 05:24)

But surely if he did that, he'd alienate Russia and China. Could they both still support him if he went to those extremes?

No, but their support for him is doing little other than increasing the death toll. It's not actually helping him stay in power. Now, Iran, that's a different case (I read somewhere that Iran actually have elements of their regular armed forced deployed in Syria though I'm unsure of how true it is) but in the grand scheme of things their support ability is limited. If things continue going as rapidly downhill as they are, it doesn't matter if he alienates Russian and China, he's screwed either way.