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Prices of fuel going up by 30% Not a f*cking milestone. It's happening.
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Garfield 2  |
Posted: Wednesday, Mar 2 2011, 00:32
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No US for me in 2014... BLNT

Group: Members
Joined: Jun 15, 2007


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| QUOTE | Forstly, ignore news about New York oil prices - here in Europe the heavier Brent oil is used and this is trading at a $8 permium to New York crude. For journalists reading this, please quote Brent oil prices to ensure accurate reporting.
Just to give a proper comparison - at its very highest in 2008, Brent crude reached $145, but the dollar/euro rate was $1.60 - in euro terms the price was €90.60 / barrel.
Today, Brent is trading at $99 and the dollar rate is $1.31 which equates to €75.50 / barrel - so not a huge difference in the raw material cost.
The pump difference is made up from successive duty & carbon tax rises.
In a worst case scenario and oil jumped by a further 20% to $120 and the dollar satys as is, the forecourt price would only rise by 8% as Duty, refining costs & distribution costs will remain relatively static. So while you'll hear some people talk about a €2 forecourt price, Oil would have to jump to $200 before this would happen.
In the medium term, the world can't sustain these higher prices. There is no shortage of oil despite what some green agenda people may suggest. Brazil is now awash with oil after some mega recent finds as is Iran, Iraq & most of middle East. Food shortages and higher food prices which will be exceberated by the higher oil prices (oil makes the world go round) will dampen down world ecomonic growth and may in particular affect China. - And if the Chinese economic bubble bursts as many are predicting, oil prices will crash. - If China has a soft landing (where did I hear that phrase before??) oil prices will drop back too.
In a few weeks, once all the weather and poipline related issues are out of the way, we should soo normality come back to the market and prices drop back to the low $80.
If you are buying home heat - I'd just buy half a tank for now and hope that by the time you need more, prices will have subsided. |
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