[Ispintechno]

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:23)

I've been thinking about this alittle and well. Going by Take Two's expectations of Rockstar, like Vega and Audiophyle said, GTA V has to come out this year. Because it's till March 2013 and not after it. But what if it turns out that despite Take Two's expectations, V doesn't come out this year, what would happen? I guess that would have to mean Rockstar told them it's not finished yet and that they have to alter their expectations?

Its still a possibility that could happen and I guess T2 would have to take the heat.If that was to happen that would severely disrupt the business and investors love money, they would not continue to invest in T2 and more importantly would take their money away from T2.
They seem to be playing a cocky game of we won't tell but read between the lines which no investor would like. Sounds like a lot of cocky bullsh*t going on there. The whole deal only makes sense with GTAV. If R* cocks it up for T2 that business would be badly damaged. For that I would have to say, GTAV appearing before April 2013, 85% certain. GTAV appearing after March 2013, 15%, and the worst April fools ever for their investors.
15% is a damn high risk of delay, but given R*'s track record... seems reasonable.

[baguvix_wanrltw]

I know we're currently discussing the game testers but... would anyone care to enlighten me why that (admittedly, random) theory of mine about a III era HD box is being ignored?

Do you think it's just too unlikely or are you in denial? Serious question.

It's just that I don't want to see everyone jumping onto the next hype train (which has been going for a while, the FY13 one) before we can say anything for sure.

Audiophile, you explained already that you think it's because of R* saying GTA V would be their next game. But technically III era games are old games so who knows if R* would count them or not.

Any thoughts? Sadly mvega doesn't seem to be around anymore, I'd love to hear what he thinks.


Gtaghost22: Well, MP3 made them a lot of money for this FY too, I think someone mentioned 600 million or something? So it's "only" around a billion they need in the next 8 months.

[LovesGTA]

QUOTE (Isuck100% @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 15:23)

A March release sounds plausible to me.

Haha. How do you figure that?

2012 release is almost definitely going to happen now. Highly doubtful the game would release the same month the FY ends. Also doubtful it releases the same month as Bioshock Infinite (Feb.), as Take Two wouldn't want the game to be overshadowed by GTA V.

January doesn't make any sense at all. Look at all the (extra) revenues from holiday shopping they would miss out on by releasing one month after Christmas. GTA V will be a "must have" of the video game world this holiday. Rockstar and Take Two aren't stupid. They know this.

Sometime in October, November, or early December 2012. Take your pick. Me? I'll stick with what I've said here before, and say either the last two weeks of November, or the first week of December, though anything sooner is certainly welcome.

[Audiophile]

QUOTE (baguvix_wanrltw @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:38)

I know we're currently discussing the game testers but... would anyone care to enlighten me why that (admittedly, random) theory of mine about a III era HD box is being ignored? Do you think it's just too unlikely or are you in denial? Serious question. It's just that I don't want to see everyone jumping onto the next hype train (which has been going for a while, the FY13 one) before we can say anything for sure. Audiophile, you explained already that you think it's because of R* saying GTA V would be their next game. But technically III era games are old games so who knows if R* would count them or not. Any thoughts? Sadly mvega doesn't seem to be around anymore, I'd love to hear what he thinks.

I didn't reply because I am not sure what to make of this theory.

I don't know. I know it would be a popular pack, but I don't believe it could reach those numbers. This is 55% of 1.8 billion we are talking about. I don't see anything but a new GTA reaching that mark. Especially in a few months time.

You never know tho. Guess we have to wait and see.

I think mvega is taking a break from the trolls.

[baguvix_wanrltw]

Wait, so it's "just" 55% OF the 1.8 billion by R*?

So roughly 900 million, and MP3 made how much? Half?!

Oh oh...



I somehow thought the 1.8 billion was expected from R* alone... that makes V before march even less likely imho.

EDIT: This post is bullsh*t. See below.

This post has been edited by baguvix_wanrltw on Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:49

[Audiophile]

Yes.

TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc.

I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment.

[baguvix_wanrltw]

I see, apparently my numbers of MP3 sales were off quite a lot: vgchartz claims 0.99 million sales for 360, 0.83 for PS3 and 0.15 for PC so MP3 couldn't have made much.

I think I should go to sleep soon

This post has been edited by baguvix_wanrltw on Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:47

[MosquitoSmasher]

QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:43)

Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment.

What the f*ck, i didn't even realize it. But that would mean only the Max Payne 3 DLC has to make those numbers? Cause from Rockstar Games, nothing else is planned for this year so far.

[BlackandWhite23]

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Wednesday, Aug 1 2012, 01:45)

QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:43) Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment. What the f*ck, i didn't even realize it. But that would mean only the Max Payne 3 DLC has to make those numbers? Cause from Rockstar Games, nothing else is planned for this year so far.

Yes thats correct But could Three packs make 900 billion and there map packs

[Audiophile]

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:45)

QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:43) Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment. What the f*ck, i didn't even realize it. But that would mean only the Max Payne 3 DLC has to make those numbers? Cause from Rockstar Games, nothing else is planned for this year so far.

That's why it can only be GTA V coming soon to help R* get those numbers, IMO.

Remember in the conference they said they expect this from such and such titles and also UNANNOUNCED titles. Or yet to be announced. I don't remember the exact wording but I think that is code for GTA V. TakeTwo had to be very careful. They can't just come out and say anything that would hint to people it was for sure GTA V.

[MosquitoSmasher]

QUOTE (BlackandWhite23 @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:47)

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Wednesday, Aug 1 2012, 01:45) QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:43) Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment. What the f*ck, i didn't even realize it. But that would mean only the Max Payne 3 DLC has to make those numbers? Cause from Rockstar Games, nothing else is planned for this year so far. Yes thats correct But could Three packs make 900 billion and there map packs

I have no knowledge or whatsoever of this, but i hiiiiighly doubt they can make this kind of money with DLC packs. Especially when Max Payne 3 apparently wasn't a smash hit, not a huge succes, and on top of that...that Rockstar announced that the previously five planned DLC packs have no become three large ones. Just a rather curious decision.....

[Audiophile]

I think what happened with the MP3 DLC today is because R* finally gave up on it, just wants to get the DLC's out and slowly start their GTA V marketing.

Whatever the reason, I think they realized they just need to GTFO with MP3 and it's DLC.

[MosquitoSmasher]

QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:49)

QUOTE (MosquitoSmasher @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:45) QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:43) Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment. What the f*ck, i didn't even realize it. But that would mean only the Max Payne 3 DLC has to make those numbers? Cause from Rockstar Games, nothing else is planned for this year so far. That's why it can only be GTA V coming soon to help R* get those numbers, IMO. Remember in the conference they said they expect this from such and such titles and also UNANNOUNCED titles. Or yet to be announced. I don't remember the exact wording but I think that is code for GTA V. TakeTwo had to be very careful. They can't just come out and say anything that would hint to people it was for sure GTA V.

Yeah i'm really starting to see your point now. I didn't listen to the call, but i did follow the thread and Zelnick indeed said 'unannounced titles' but does he mean that in the sense of that unannounced titles from now till March 2013? Or after March? And if he means GTA V with unannounced, i assume he means unannounced release date?

[BlackLightning]

55 percent of 1.8 billion from Cockstar before March is all you need to know. So there's your window. If they want to capitalize on this holiday season and maximize profits, they will release it this year. Next year, prior to March, is already crowded with four triple A titles -- Tomb Raider, Gears of War 4, God of War: Ascension, and Bioshock: Infinite. So next year is out. It will come out this year, guaranteed.

[bud23]

QUOTE (Audiophile @ Wednesday, Aug 1 2012, 00:43)

Yes. TakeTwo said they expect 55% of 1.8 billion from R* before March 2013. The rest of the income will come from TakeTwo and 2K or whatever else. So Borderlands 2 etc. I think MP3 made like 3 million(?)....I am not sure but it was a disappointment.

The picture is more or less this; 60% of revenue (≈ $1.1 billion) from Rockstar Games and 40% (≈ $700 million) from 2K Games.
For Rockstar the estimation is that Max Payne 3 would contribute up to $250 million depending on DLC, with $150 million from catalog sales of other Rockstar games(GTA III era games).
The remaining $700 million is not possible without a GTA V release before FY end.

[Audiophile]

@MosquitoSmasher
I think he meant GTA V based on how it was said. I think it was for before March 2013 because they were talking about this upcoming fiscal quarter but I am not 100% sure. It makes sense to me to mean before the end of March 2013 as they discused how they expect to meet that goal of 1.8 billion.

I listened to the entire conference call and Zelnick even admitted that MP3 was a disappointment. Hence why I think they had to adjust expected earnings from R* down to 55% of 1.8 billion from 60% which is from the last conference, before MP3's release.

Before MP3's release TTWO expected 60% of 1.8 billion from R*. This was in May. After MP3's release, they adjusted the numbers down to 55% today.

I think a lot of people were pissed today because they expected some kind of info or legit release date. This financial conference was never about that. And I personally never expected that. I just wanted to see the numbers, to see a possible release window. And we got one...the numbers remain the same with a slight adjustment of $2 per share from $2.20 and 55% from R* instead of 60%

[Ispintechno]

QUOTE (baguvix_wanrltw @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:38)

I know we're currently discussing the game testers but... would anyone care to enlighten me why that (admittedly, random) theory of mine about a III era HD box is being ignored? Do you think it's just too unlikely or are you in denial? Serious question. It's just that I don't want to see everyone jumping onto the next hype train (which has been going for a while, the FY13 one) before we can say anything for sure. Audiophile, you explained already that you think it's because of R* saying GTA V would be their next game. But technically III era games are old games so who knows if R* would count them or not. Any thoughts? Sadly mvega doesn't seem to be around anymore, I'd love to hear what he thinks. Gtaghost22: Well, MP3 made them a lot of money for this FY too, I think someone mentioned 600 million or something? So it's "only" around a billion they need in the next 8 months.

I would love a remake of 3rd era GTA's in HD, but it a question of resources. North is making GTAV, in Canada R* is being restructured to move operations to Toronto, San Fran is probably working on Agent which is slated for 12-18 months for now. Makes sense they have been spearheading the project after red dead in '10.

As much as I think it would be successful, it's a gamble and the asking price would be low per DL while having to recreate 3 old games isn't totally without resources. Be risky and not really necessary to the portfolio. I think R* would love to make something else as big as GTA but not GTA to stay relevant in the future. My opinion we'll get new platform old releases in vanilla flavour. Could hopefully be wrong on that one though. But IMO if you evaluate the effort/return it would do nearly as well unmastered in HD. Same number of people would essentially buy it.

[baguvix_wanrltw]

So just to get this straight:

Between $1.7billion and $1.8billion in revenue are expected by T2 for FY13 (Source: http://ir.take2games.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=8...531&highlight=)

Rockstar is supposedly responsible for 55% of that (same source).

That means R* is supposed to make T2 between $935 million and $990 million this fiscal year which ends on March 31st 2013.

So far R* has only sold something between 2 and 3 million copies of MP3.

Let's just imagine (I have no real numbers onhand, sorry) they made $30 for each of those copies, that would mean between $60 million and $90 million.

So that leaves roughly $850 million to be made with other stuff.

Ok, there is...

- MP3 DLC

- GTA III mobile

- Max Payne mobile

- GTA III PS2/3

Let's be generous and say that's another 100 million.

That still leaves $750 million.

Assuming the $30/game figure I used above was more or less accurate, that would mean they'd have to sell 25 million full price games in the next 8 months.

Let's say MP3 will sell the same amount again and the DLC, GTA III mobile and PS3 versions as well as Max Payne mobile make yet another 100 million...

Even then they'd have to sell 21.6 million more full price games until March 31st 2013.


Citing from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV:

QUOTE

As of September 2011, the game had shipped over 22 million copies.

Hm... maybe you guys are right. 22 million copies of that HD box I dreamed up don't seem realistic to me.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Magic_Al]

We can narrow down the $1.8 billion to $1.3 billion in the relevant October-March timeframe because up to $476.1 million is accounted for by the end of the current quarter ending in September. Any number with a billion in it is a number that needs GTA V.

Although GTA V wasn't officially announced until 10/26/11, in hindsight it was financially indicated since 5/24/11 when Take-Two first gave the $2.0 EPS guidance for FY2013. That means GTA V has had an internal release date for over 14 months and hasn't been delayed yet. Isn't that good?

[Cutter De Blanc]

QUOTE (baguvix_wanrltw @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 23:45)

I see, apparently my numbers of MP3 sales were off quite a lot: vgchartz claims 0.99 million sales for 360, 0.83 for PS3 and 0.15 for PC so MP3 couldn't have made much. I think I should go to sleep soon

Yeah even at 60 bucks a pop (which is more thasn retailers pay for it, I was just being generous with my estimate) 3 million copies is only $180 mil.